Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
